Service Plays Friday 02/13/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[SteveMcQueen]

ATS Sports Club
February 13, 2009

Soccer:

France Ligue 2:

Tours vs. Bastia over 2

AC Ajaccio vs. Vannes OC over 2

Italy Serie B:

Sassuolo vs. Triestina over 2

German 2 Bundesliga:

RW Oberhausen vs. St. Pauli over 2.5

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Raging Bull

Soccer:

Bayer Leverkusen/TSG Hoffenheim over 2.5 (German Bundesliga)

AGOVV Apeldoorn/Dordrecht '90 over 2.5 (Dutch Eerste Divisie)

FC Zwolle/RBC Roosendaal over 2.5 (Dutch Eerste Divisie)

SpVgg Greuther Furth/FSV Frankfurt over 2.5 (German 2 Bundesliga)

2* VVV Venlo/Cambuur Leeuwarden over 3 (Dutch Eerste Divisie)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Cleveland State (-10-1/2) Thursday night.

Friday it's Columbia. The profit is 180 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

(853) PRINCETON
(854) YALE
Take "Under"

Princeton's defense is dynamite, tops in the Ivy League allowing 50 points per game. The last two games they've allowed 41 and 35 points! They take on a struggling Yale team that is last in scoring offense in the Ivy League, with 57.7 ppg. Yale is on a 1-3 SU/ATS run, scoring 42, 36 and 54 points in the losses. Princeton is unbeaten in the conference and will bring their 'A' game defensively to try and stay that way. Don't look for much offense, play Princeton/Yale under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

(861) LOYOLA CHICAGO
(862) VALPARAISO
Take "(862) VALPARAISO"

Two badly struggling squads match up tonight in the Horizon League as Loyola visits Valparaiso. The Ramblers are really scuffling, losing and failing to cover each of their last five games. At least Valpo is hanging in, as they've covered their last three contests. Revenge for the home team, and they're in slightly better form, so the lean is to Valparaiso.

 

[gansettsports]

Comp soccer pick

uo25 dot com comp site.. 13-7 ytd.. Last play I did not post as he had an under 2.5, when I went to thegreek, it was 2, it pushed at 2. Anyway..

~~~ Oberhausen/StPauli over 2.5/-141 thegreek Germ 2 12:00 ET

 

[steve114123]

Paul Leiner:

300* CBB Villanova +4

50* CBB Over 126.5 Butler/Ill-Chi

10* CBB Rider -9.5

They just randomly emailed these for some reason

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Insider Sports Report
4* Butler -12.5 over Illinois-Chicago (NCAAB)
Range: -10.5 to -14.5
3* Rider -9 over Saint Peters (NCAAB)
Range: -7.5 to -11

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Dr. Canada

Game 1 - NJ Devils -120

Game 2 - Rangers/Panthers over 5.5

Game 3 - Blackhawks/Blues over 6

Game 4 - Canadiens/Avalanche over 6

 

[Mr.BlueSky]

some good FADE material courtesy of B. Lang:


5-Dime Villanova- Hands down, the Wildcats are the hottest team in arguably the bestconference in college basketball. That's no joke, as the Wildcats rollin after a pair of blowout win over tenth-ranked Marquette and23rd-ranked Syracuse, scoring an NBA-like 102 points in both games andwinning those contests by 18 and 17 points, respectively. And duringthis current six-game win streak, Jay Wright's boys have also defeatedfourth-ranked Pittsburgh by 10 points.

While everyone is impressed by Connecticut, which to its defense beatNova by six points back on Jan. 21, I am more impressed with Villanova's strength - balance and versatility. These Wildcats go eightto 10 players deep, so while they may be without 6-foot-6 startingforward Dwayne Anderson, there are plenty of players for Wright tochoose from when rotating his lineup.

These two actually match up quite the same with Wright's usual lineup,but the 'Cats can bring some size off the bench to dwarf Bobby Huggins'boys, something that has been the Mountaineers' downfall this season,because they cannot employ the defensive tempo he like to own from theopening tip.

I don't the Mounties will be able to shoot the ball well, so I'll play the road team here.

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Dunkel Index picks

NCAA Basketball Pick
Illinois-Chicago at Butler
The Flames are coming off a 64-53 win over Detroit, but are just 1-6 ATS after holding teams to 60 points or less in the previous game. Butler is the pick (-12 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Butler (-12 1/2).


Today's NHL Pick
Montreal at Colorado
The Canadiens are 0-5 on Friday nights and face a Colorado team that is 5-2 at home when the total is 6 or more. The Avalanche is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has Colorado favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+100).

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Joe Wiz Bonus Plays

Iona, St Peters, And Boston Bruins

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Randall the Handle

COLORADO –1.04 over Montreal PINNACLE

The Av’s are definitely a team struggling to get points these days but a visit from the Canadiens is precisely what the doctor ordered, as the Habs credibility is dropping quicker than Alex Rodriguez’s. Colorado is coming off a loss in Minnesota but they really played a strong game and absolutely deserved a better fate. This is a game the players have openly stated that they’re really looking forward to, as they rarely get a visit from Montreal and for some, it’s the first chance they’ll have of playing against Montreal. The Pepsi Center isn’t buzzing much these days but tonight there will be a playoff atmosphere, as it’s Montreal’s third visit here in the last eight years. But more than that is the current condition these Habs are in. This is a fragile team that’s playing like one. They’re not scoring, they’re not preventing goals, the goaltending has been brutal and they’re not just losing, some pretty average teams are whacking them. Over its last three games the Habs have been outscored 18-6 by Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton. They have two wins over its last 11 and one of those wins was not justified, as the Kings outplayed them badly but a horrible penalty call with a minute left sent the game to OT and ultimately gave Montreal a win they did not deserve. Montreal has scored two goals or less in eight of those 11 games while allowing four goals or more seven times over that same span. This team is a grease fire right now and they’re under extreme pressure to perform well. The Av’s are the next team to pounce on them and the fact that the Canadiens are favored, albeit a small one is pretty ridiculous. Play: Colorado –1.04 (Risking 3.12 units to win 3).



COLORADO/Montreal under 6 –1.10 PINNACLE

When a team is struggling as badly as the Habs are the first thing every player and coach will insist is that the team play responsibly on the defensive end. These are two teams that are both struggling and you can expect the intensity level to be high for this game. These two don’t score many to begin with and it’s going to take seven goals to beat us here. Frankly, I was a bit shocked when I saw a “6” posted for this one, as all of the Av’s posted totals this season have been 5½ with the exception of six games. Two of those six were against the Leafs. Anyway, this game should be a 5½ too. Play: Colorado/Montreal under 6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).



DALLAS -½ +1.05 over Vancouver (REG) PINNACLE

The Canucks pulled one out in Phoenix last night by a score of 4-3 for its fourth straight win and it’s safe to say that the Canucks have snapped out of its funk. However, this is an extremely tough spot for them, as they’ll be playing its third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs, all in the road. It’s also the third different time zone in those four games, making this assignment about as difficult as it gets. Furthermore, the Stars are among the hottest teams in the league with seven wins in nine games and as far as situations go, this is among the best I’ve seen all year that heavily favors the home side. Play: Dallas -½ +1.05 (Risking 3 units).

 

[SteveMcQueen]

John Ryan

Illinois Chicago vs. Butler
Play: Illinois Chicago +13

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Illinois-Chicago as they travel to face Butler slated to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows a 75% probability that IC will lose this game by 12 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 59-27 for 69% winners since 1997. Play against a favorite off 2 or more consecutive road wins and playing on Friday nights. HC Collins is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games. IC is off a 3 game home stand and played well in their last game against Detroit. This will carry over to this challenge against ranked Butler and serves to erase the dismal performance in the second home game against Youngstown State where they shot just 31% and lost 68-60 installed as 10.5 point favorites. Take Illinois-Chicago to keep this game within double digits and possibly even tighter

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Matt Fargo

GAME: Princeton @ Yale Feb 13, 2009 7:00PM
SPORT: College Basketball Picks
PICK: Princeton
Offered at: 2 Belmont
REASON FOR PICK: Yale is favored here because it is at home and it has to be favored. Arguably, the wrong team is laying the number but that is fine and we will take the added value with Princeton who is making a case for coming back to prominence in the Ivy League. The Tigers owned this conference for years but a couple bad years in a row led to a changing of the guard. Now, even though it was somewhat unexpected, they are once again rising to the top. They are 4-0 in the Ivy League which is part of a seven-game winning streak that goes all the way back to the start of January. Included in this run was a huge 20-point victory over Cornell, the preseason conference favorite, last Friday. Even more impressive was that there was no letdown as Princeton came back on Saturday and thumped Columbia so there was no letdown. That makes us even more confident here that the Tigers are focused and looking past no one. This is even more important facing a team that it has been swept by in each of the last four seasons. Yale is 1-3 over its last four games and while the string has been all games on the road, this is not a team to be backing as it lacks a lot of confidence, especially on the offensive end of the floor. The Bulldogs were held to 42, 36 and 54 points in those three losses and now they face the best defensive team in the league. As far as offensive efficiency, Yale is 6th in the eight-team Ivy with a 90.3 efficiency rating which is also 306th in the nation. The Bulldogs are turning the ball over on 24.3 percent of their possessions which is 317th in the country. That has led to an assist/turnover ratio of 0.82 and that drops to a putrid 0.66 ratio over their last five games. Over this five game stretch, the Bulldogs are -0.19 in ratio margin while Princeton is +0.67 in margin over that same span. The Yale number improves at home to +0.11 but the Tigers are still solid on the road with a ratio margin of +0.25. Overall, the Tigers have edges in every category that I look at which are efficiency ratings, power rating, offensive and defensive shooting, both regular and long-range, rebounding margin, free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio. One can argue the soft schedule of the Tigers has led to this however the Bulldogs have played a schedule ranked 283rd in the nation so they are not far behind. Play against home teams with a winning percentage of between 40 and 49 percent on the season where the line is +3 to -3 and coming off a road loss by three points or less. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +4.7 ppg. Princeton is 6-0 ATS this season after allowing 55 points or fewer and it is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a win dating back to last season. Yale meanwhile is no a horrendous run of 3-16 ATS when playing teams that average six or fewer steals per game so playing a non-pressuring defense will not help much here. The public is not taking this Princeton run very serious as it is all over the Bulldogs here but that will be a mistake when Princeton extends its run to eight consecutive wins and gets its revenge following four straight losses to Yale. 3* Princeton Tigers

 

[SteveMcQueen]

SPORTS ADVISORS

(13) Villanova (20-4, 13-7 ATS) at West Virginia (16-8, 9-12 ATS)

Villanova shoots for its seventh straight victory when it travels to West Virginia Coliseum in Morgantown to take on the Mountaineers in a Big East showdown.

Villanova is the hottest team in the Big East, winning six straight and going 8-0 ATS in its last eight following Tuesday’s 102-84 rout of Marquette as a five-point home chalk. Villanova has scored exactly 102 points in each of its last two games and is averaging 87.2 points per game on 51 percent shooting over its last five outings.

West Virginia has lost three of its last four (2-2 ATS), including Monday’s 70-59 setback at Pitt, coming up short as an 8½-point pup. The Mountaineers get the job done at home on defense, allowing just 56 ppg on 39.1 percent shooting in Morgantown. Bob Huggins’ squad is 10-2 in front of the home fans, but just 4-5 ATS.

Villanova won last year’s only meeting, between these schools, cruising 78-56 as a 1½-point home underdog. West Virginia is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven in this short-lived rivalry.

The Wildcats are riding positive ATS streaks of 8-0 in Big East action, 5-2 on the road, 6-0 after a straight-up win and 7-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Friday games, but otherwise they’re on ATS slides of 4-10 as a favorite, 2-5 after a straight-up loss and 0-4 at home against teams with a winning road mark.

For Villanova, the over is 6-2 in its last eight overall and 9-3 in its last 12 Big East contests, but the Wildcats are on “under” streaks of 21-6-1 as a ‘dog, 13-4-1 as a road ‘dog, 8-2-1 on Fridays and 6-2 after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. West Virginia is riding “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-1 following a straight-up loss, 4-1 in Big East play and 7-3 after a non-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Johnny Guild

Brown Bears -1

Butler Bulldogs -13

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Saint Peter Peacocks @ Rider - Friday February 13, 2009 8:00 pm
Pick: 2 units ATS: Saint Peter Peacocks +9.5 (-110)



This St Peter's team is an astute sports capper's dream when playing on the road as a "big dog," as they are today at Rider. They sneak up on heavily favored, unfocused opponents in these games, because of their crappy 4-10 conference record, but in "our world" of point spreads, line value and "covers," they are like an ATM machine when playing in this preferred role, where they are 6-1 ATS in their 7 conf road games TY (all as dogs of +6>), not incl their early December loss at Fairfield, when they were playing only their sixth game of the season and had not yet "gelled." And if we limit their record as conf road dogs to those games in a point spread range of 6-12 points, the ATS range for this game, Peacocks have a 4-0 ATS record, with an average MOL (margin of loss) of just two points! The only negative trend stat that we see for St Peter’s in this game is that they are coming off a SU win in their last game (a win at Canisius as 6 point dogs), which puts them in a post-win mode, where they are just 1-2-1 ATS TY (compared to 9-3 ATS off a SU loss).

Contrast to Rider, who already beat Peacocks TY (by 11 on a “neutral” court at the Pru Center in Newark, NJ), is off a couple of wins, including a major upset of conf leader Siena, and cannot possibly be very motivated for this game. But looking at that earlier game between these two, we notice that Rider was up by 22 at HT, and then coasted the rest of the way. That, plus the above mentioned fact that Peacocks are off a win rather than a loss, limits this pick to two units. But Rider is just 2-3 ATS TY as a conf HF, with an average MOV of just two points in those five games, which won't get it done against this huge spread. Moreover, the road team is 6-2-2 ATS in the last 10 of this series, and St Peter's is 2-1-1 ATS in its last 4 visits to Trenton to play Rider, with an average MOL of just two points in those five games.

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Kelso BB

50 units Cornell -15
5 units Loy Md -2.5